Transport operators’ endurance contest continues, economist urges monitoring Germany
January 14, 2026
The latest survey of members of the Transport Innovation Association (TIA) shows that transport and logistics companies are carefully weighing their ability to endure a prolonged “survival game” while also looking toward risky opportunities offered by Asia. Meanwhile, Aleksandras Izgorodinas, an economist at Citadele Bank, points to growing markets in Northern and Southern Europe and urges close attention to a potentially reawakening German economy.
The Transport Innovation Association (TIA), which unites several dozen transport and logistics companies, has shared the newest results of its member survey with Verslo žinios. The data reveal a sector preparing to withstand yet another difficult year.
According to Rugilė Andziukevičiūtė-Buzė, head of TIA, carriers’ biggest headaches are no longer fuel prices but relations with state institutions and the search for employees.
“2025 in the logistics sector was stable, but without any growth breakthrough. Most companies managed to maintain revenues, but neither the market nor its participants felt clear growth,” Andziukevičiūtė-Buzė summarizes.
The survey shows that nearly 47% of companies describe last year as stable, while 42.6% consider it unsuccessful. Only one in ten companies reported positive achievements, and 55.3% say they are already feeling clear signs of an economic slowdown.
Risky East Becomes Attractive
TIA notes that 83% of Lithuanian transport companies project their future in Western Europe. However, an increasing number of businesses are tempted by risky but highly profitable freight routes from China via Russia and Belarus.
According to Andziukevičiūtė-Buzė, the reason is simple: while margins in Western markets are shrinking due to intense competition, routes to the East can still generate profitability of up to 25%.
“This is not a widespread practice, but its scale is sufficient to speak of an established high-risk niche. Carriers operating in this niche consciously assess and accept the cost of longer customs procedures, unpredictable border delays, increased regulatory uncertainty, and reputational risks,” she explains.
This trend highlights a clear split in the sector: some companies choose stability, lower returns, and clear rules, while others take on risk for higher—but unsustainable—profits.
A Deepening Problem
Labor shortages are identified as a core issue limiting not only growth but also day-to-day operations. The situation is further complicated by tightening regulations on employing third-country nationals.
“Negotiations over amendments to the Law on the Legal Status of Foreigners and the quota system with state institutions are moving slowly and provide businesses with neither clarity nor predictability. Carriers emphasize that the ability to plan operations for the longer term has effectively disappeared,” Andziukevičiūtė-Buzė says.
Driver shortages are seen as a critical challenge by 46.8% of respondents. In open comments, business representatives mention growing tensions, with some drivers exploiting their stronger bargaining position and, in some cases, threatening legal action that can paralyze operations.
Biggest Risks Come from Government
The survey indicates that in 2025 the sector’s decisions were influenced less by market demand and more by the unpredictability of government decisions and geopolitical instability. As many as 83% of respondents rated government unpredictability at the maximum risk level, calling it the most important factor driving cautious, defensive business behavior.
“For business, the key issue is not that rules change, but that it is unclear when and how they will change. This uncertainty becomes the main factor limiting investment and long-term decisions,” Andziukevičiūtė-Buzė notes.
Unappealing Initiatives
Caution about the future also shapes investment priorities. “Digitalization in logistics in 2026 will be more evolutionary than revolutionary,” says Andziukevičiūtė-Buzė. Transport management systems are already standard, used by 72.3% of companies, while only 8.5% plan to actively invest in artificial intelligence solutions. Companies focus on measures that pay off quickly or are unavoidable due to regulation, such as upcoming eFTI requirements.
A similar pragmatism prevails in sustainability decisions. According to 51.1% of respondents, customers are unwilling to pay more for “green” transport. Sustainability, Andziukevičiūtė-Buzė argues, is largely a marketing banner for large companies, while for smaller firms facing 1.5–2.5 times higher costs, it remains an unaffordable luxury.
No Optimism
TIA survey results suggest that 2026 will not be a breakthrough year for Lithuania’s transport and logistics sector. Nearly 60% of companies expect the year to be similar to 2025, while another 34% are preparing for a possible further downturn.
“The overall sector backdrop points not to expectations of growth, but to a constant state of adaptation, where business balances between survival, cost control, and increasingly unpredictable external factors. In this context, the decisive factor is not the market, not technology, and not even labor shortages, but the predictability of state decisions,” Andziukevičiūtė-Buzė concludes.
If this element does not change soon, some carriers may face a choice not between growth and stagnation, but between slow, disciplined adaptation and exit from the market.
“Today, those who win are not the most ambitious, but those who can calmly and consistently put their house in order. In the coming years, this will be a contest of endurance, not speed,” she adds.
Hopes in the North and South
Aleksandras Izgorodinas of Citadele Bank offers a more optimistic outlook for 2026. He says he sees “both positive aspects and positive aspects with risks.”
He expects economic growth in Scandinavia this year, as well as in Spain and other Southern European countries. Scandinavia’s growth is driven by low interest rates, while Southern Europe is recovering partly because it has relatively little industry.
Watch Germany
Izgorodinas also expresses hope for economic revival in Germany, where a record-size budget has been approved, though risks remain.
He argues that while it makes sense for carriers to focus on Southern Europe now, Germany should be monitored very closely. If economic stimulus measures are implemented quickly, a sharper upswing could become visible as early as the beginning of the second quarter.
